Hurricane Melissa is an extraordinary Category 5 hurricane. Its high-confidence track will take the center ashore on Jamaica's southwest coast tomorrow morning. Melissa could go through an eyewall replacement cycle on its path north to the Jamaican coast, which would reduce the peak winds, but it would grow the storm in size. A larger storm generally does more damage overall.   Melissa is forecast to be a strong Category 4 or a Category 5 storm at landfall—nominally at 9 AM E

An extremely dangerous and unnerving scenario will unfold tonight, tomorrow, and Tuesday across the eastern half of Jamaica, including the capital, Kingston. Extreme rainfall is forecast—it will be measured in feet. Winds at landfall on the south coast look likely to be at least Category 4. Storm surge is forecast up to 13 feet above normal high tide in the bays and harbors east of the landfall point.   Here is the National Hurricane Center's strong and direct warning about w