An extremely dangerous and unnerving scenario will unfold tonight, tomorrow, and Tuesday across the eastern half of Jamaica, including the capital, Kingston. Extreme rainfall is forecast—it will be measured in feet. Winds at landfall on the south coast look likely to be at least Category 4. Storm surge is forecast up to 13 feet above normal high tide in the bays and harbors east of the landfall point.   Here is the National Hurricane Center's strong and direct warning about w

Tropical Storm Melissa is organizing while it sits over the Caribbean southeast of Jamaica. The hostile upper-level winds that have been holding it back have let up enough that a partial eyewall has formed. Melissa will likely intensify into a hurricane in a matter of hours. Once the storm has its structure in place, rapid intensification is forecast over the near-record warm water.   If Melissa goes down the middle of the National Hurricane Center cone and intensifies as for