The tropical disturbance we've been tracking—officially Invest 98L—is on the cusp of becoming Tropical Storm Melissa. The system already has sufficient winds, about 45 mph, and it’s finally showing signs of a closed circulation.   Hostile upper-level winds are still pushing dry air into the system and tilting the vortex toward the east, but they have let up enough for the circulation to establish itself. The system has slowed its forward speed, which is also helping it stand

The odds that the Tropical Disturbance in the Caribbean will organize and strengthen are now in the high range. The National Hurricane Center is still painting a large potential development zone across much of the Caribbean, indicating the uncertainty in where the development will occur.   The disturbance is already producing winds near 40 mph, so the system is likely to become Tropical Storm Melissa when it organizes a full circulation or soon thereafter.   The upper-level w