A Disturbance to Move into the Gulf While the Atlantic Stays Dusty

A cold front moving off the Carolina coast and an upper-level disturbance over the Bahamas are gathering tropical moisture east of Florida and extending into the Atlantic. A weak low-pressure system has formed off the North Carolina coast. This system and the upper-level low will drift into the Gulf over the next few days, increasing the chance of tropical downpours over the Florida peninsula and along the northern Gulf Coast.

If this seems like déjà vu, take away the upper-level low and it's the same scenario we saw a couple of weeks ago with Invest #93L. The various computer forecasts are not predicting this system to be as robust as 93L, and there's no indication of tropical development at this point. In any case, it will be something to keep half an eye on.

These systems look to enhance rainfall over Florida at least through Thursday, and along the Gulf Coast until the end of the week.

In the Atlantic

The tropical disturbance (Invest #94L) we were following is not going to develop. It couldn't organize a full circulation, and nearby dry air and Saharan dust took their toll. The moisture from the system will pass through the southeastern Caribbean islands tomorrow and Thursday. The system, such as it is, will die out in the Caribbean.

Healthy-looking disturbances are moving off Africa on schedule, but for at least the next week, the dust and dry air look to prohibit any development. Overall, the dust appears to be slowly decreasing on schedule now that we're at the end of July. Saharan dust season end, on average, around the middle of August.

Some of the long-range computer forecasts, including the new Google AI model, indicate the possibility of a disturbance organizing in the central tropical Atlantic around the end of the month or the beginning of August. We'll see.