A DISTURBANCE TO WATCH FAR OUT IN THE ATLANTIC BUT DRY AIR STILL DOMINATES THE TROPICS
The National Hurricane Center is taking note of a somewhat-organized Tropical Disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic. The disturbance is sneaking under a big batch of dry Saharan air, which is still spread across the tropics.
The disturbance has a limited window of time to develop before it drives into the dry air and somewhat hostile upper winds. It’s heading to the west now, in the general direction of the Caribbean islands.
The computer forecast models are mixed on whether it will become organized enough to be designated a tropical depression. At the end of the week, the upper winds and the dry air are forecast to affect the system. As a result, the current expectation is that it will move through the islands as just a moisture surge.
The moisture from the disturbance may reach South Florida around the weekend, increasing our chance of rain.
Pockets of dry air aloft are forecast to pass over South Florida this week, which will limit the rain when they do. An unfortunate byproduct of this weather pattern is that the extra-humid air gets trapped at the ground. With no significant weather systems to push it out, and fewer thunderstorms to stir the atmosphere, the seriously sticky weather will continue.
The water temperature offshore is stuck on 86 or 87 degrees, so as the breeze blows in, it’s picking up warmth and water vapor. We’re stuck with that for a while.
Otherwise, the tropics look calm through the week, though we always watch for disturbances coming off of Africa this time of year.