A New Area to Watch in the Southwestern Gulf This Week

The National Hurricane Center is painting a potential development area in the southwestern Gulf. The odds that a system, even a tropical depression, will develop there are in the low range. But it's something we'll watch this week.

The computer forecast models have been picking up on the possibility. On the forecast map for Thursday morning, you see that both the European and the Google AI models show possible development near Mexico. The more dots you see concentrated in one area, the higher the odds of development according to the model.

There are 64 possible Google dots and 50 Euro dots. If 114 dots showed up, the joint message would be a 100% chance of development. In this case, you see a 25-30% showing. But having said that, both models have overstated the chances of development this year.

The bottom line is that it's something to keep an eye on, but nothing major is likely to develop. And the odds of anything organized developing are low.

If we look out further in time, the models show the potential development spread from north to south over the Gulf. This is a sign that the signal for any particular development or track is low. Again, we'll keep an eye on it, but more likely this will be a large area of rain.

A cold front is forecast to push into Central Florida and drape across the Gulf where it will die. This is a typical weather pattern for October. The tail of the front along with an upper-level disturbance could trigger a low-pressure system to form in the southwestern Gulf.

The remnants of the front are forecast to lift back north, and the nascent low-pressure system could move north as well. The upper-level winds across the northern Gulf are forecast to be extremely hostile so the most likely outcome is a stretched-out area of storminess along the Gulf and over Florida.

Just keep an eye on things for now.

IN THE PACIFIC

Hurricane Rachel is slowly chugging away from land, but that gives it more time to put energy into the ocean. Swells will increasingly radiate north, reaching Southern California this week.

Elevated water levels causing some coastal flooding and dangerous beach conditions are likely, especially on south-facing parts of the coast like in Malibu and Long Beach. Though there will be extra energy in the surf across the region. Use care and stay aware.

The system behind it still looks likely to become Tropical Storm Simon at some point, although it’s been slow to develop. It will move north along the Mexican coast late in the week.