A New Disturbance to Watch in the Tropical Atlantic

Tropical systems have been moving off Africa this season, but any development has been thwarted by dry air, including Saharan dust, high pressure, and in some cases, hostile upper-level winds. Now there's a surprise: the National Hurricane Center is highlighting a system in the deep tropical Atlantic where a reasonably robust disturbance has a chance to develop.

The chances are in the low category, and the window of opportunity for development appears short. The disturbance has found a small gap in the plumes of Saharan dust pushing across the Atlantic. The upper-level winds over the next few days are forecast to be reasonably conducive for development, although nearby dry air will likely be an impediment.

The NHC's odds refer to the chances that the system will organize into a tropical depression, which is quite a low bar. It just means that a circulation is able to consolidate. If sustained winds reach 40 mph somewhere in that circulation, the system would get the name Tropical Storm Alberto.

By next Wednesday or Thursday, the system will be approaching the Caribbean islands. The atmospheric conditions are forecast to be hostile at that time, and it appears unlikely that the islands would be affected by more than a moisture surge. The Caribbean Sea itself is totally unsupportive of tropical systems at the moment.

This system doesn't appear to be any more than a novelty. It found a tiny slice of atmosphere where it has a low chance to organize. Overall, the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf continue to be hostile to tropical development. The tropical belt is likely to stay that way for the rest of the month, at least. Although, as this system shows, small pockets of reasonably conducive atmospheric conditions can still allow systems to at least think about making a name for themselves.