A new tropical disturbance near the Bahamas to watch
The long-range computer forecasts have been undecided about what, if anything, would develop out of a long area of low pressure extending south into the Caribbean from former-Tropical Storm Tammy. Initially, the consensus was that something would spin up in the Atlantic just north of the islands. Then it looked more likely that the development if it happens, would be in the Caribbean. It turns out the initial idea was correct.
A weak low-pressure system has formed just east of the Bahamas and north of the Dominican Republic. Hostile upper-level winds are blowing across the disturbance, pushing the thunderstorms away from the circulation, which will limit its ability to develop into much of a storm.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a 70% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression today or tomorrow before the already-strong upper-level winds become prohibitive. The system is pushing into high pressure to the north. The air being squeezed between those systems could briefly reach tropical-storm strength. If the system can get organized under the currently hostile upper winds, it would be named Tropical Storm Vince.
Whatever develops, the system does not appear to pose a threat to land. A cold front moving off the East Coast on Tuesday should sweep up the disturbance, whatever shape it’s in.
In the Caribbean, at the tail end of that long low-pressure zone extending out of Tammy, we still might see something form. There is a slight chance that a system could organize around midweek, and long-range computer forecasts indicate a better chance of a low-pressure area developing down the road. The National Hurricane Center is pegging the odds of development in the next week in the low range.
The system that was Tropical Storm Tammy is fading away in the central Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory.
These developments in and around the Caribbean are what we expect this time of year. The cold fronts pushing through the Southeast should keep everything away from the U.S. and surrounding areas for the foreseeable future.