• Bryan Norcross

A slight chance of development this week in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico

The Tropical Disturbance we’re watching is an ill-shaped arc of disturbed weather extending offshore from Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula. Radar out of Cancún shows it rotating around the broad circulation related Tropical Storm Julia, which is not far away over the Pacific coast of El Salvador.



Hostile upper-level winds are currently blowing over the disturbance, so no development is likely right away. But by midweek, Julia is forecast to dissipate and get absorbed into another Pacific system, and the disturbance will be left alone in the extreme southern Gulf.


Around Wednesday, the upper-level winds will become more conducive for the system to develop, although it is forecast to be located very close to the Mexican coast at that time. The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a very slight chance to develop into a tropical depression before it quickly moves inland over Mexico.



What’s left of Tropical Storm Julia is still dumping heavy rain over parts of Central America. Flooding and mudslides continue to be a threat. What’s left of Julia is forecast to die out over coastal Guatemala tomorrow, although it will leave some moisture behind.


A strong cold front is forecast to push down the Florida peninsula this week, powered by hostile upper-level winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Normally when this happens, it signals the end of the hurricane-season threat to the U.S. Although tropical systems can still form to the south, like the disturbance discussed above, and systems sometimes form in the central Atlantic late in the year.


For now, the odds of any significant threat to the U.S., the Bahamas, or the northern Caribbean islands appear very low, but they are not yet zero.