A System to Watch in the Southwestern Gulf

A low-pressure system has developed off the coast of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a high chance of developing into at least a tropical depression later this week.

Overall, the atmospheric environment is not supportive of sustained development, but a pocket of relatively conducive upper-level winds could allow the system to organize.

This Gulf system is related to the Pacific disturbance that is eventually expected to organize into Tropical Storm Simon. They are loosely part of the same broad area of low pressure for now, but a dip in the jet stream developing over Texas will eventually take over and pull the Gulf disturbance slowly toward the north.

Across the northern Gulf, the upper-level winds are extremely hostile and are forecast to stay that way. It does not seem likely that a significant storm would threaten land, unless it sits in the Gulf beyond our forecast window and the pattern changes. That's not impossible, but that's not the expectation.

In any case, the disturbance will contribute to a rainy weather pattern across the northeastern Gulf and Florida.

The computer forecast models are all over the place. Some keep it in the southwestern Gulf, and others pull it north. When we see this kind of spread, it tells us that there is low confidence in the forecast. The mechanisms involved in developing and steering the system are complex and subtle.

For now, we have to watch and see what develops over the next two or three days. If a system is able to organize, forecast consistency should increase.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic looks completely hostile to tropical development.

IN THE PACIFIC

The disturbance south of Mexico, which is being triggered by the same broad low-pressure area as the Gulf system, is forecast to track north. It is likely to develop into a tropical storm. This will be something for the Mexican coast north of Manzanillo to keep an eye on.