A tropical disturbance is slowly organizing in the southwest Caribbean Sea

A spin in the clouds is detectable by satellite over the warm Caribbean waters off the coast of Nicaragua. This tropical disturbance is part of a broad area of disturbed weather that extends across Central America into the Pacific.

The far western part of this area has already spawned a tropical depression that is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves away from Mexico over the Pacific waters. Another Pacific system or two might yet develop as well.

The computer forecast models disagree on the future track of the Caribbean system. In general, it will rotate counterclockwise around the broad Central American disturbance. The question is whether it stays over the water as it lifts generally toward the northwest along the Nicaraguan and Honduran coasts, and eventually toward Belize and Mexico.

If it moves inland over Central America, it would only be a heavy rain threat. On the other hand, The National Hurricane Center is giving it a decent chance of taking a track over the water. In that case, it would have a chance to develop. The atmospheric conditions appear reasonably conducive for development of at least a tropical storm.

A strong high-pressure system across the Gulf of Mexico will block the system from getting very far north, so it wouldn’t be a threat to the U.S. coast, even if it does develop.

That same high is helping propel Saharan dust into the Gulf, which has dried out the atmosphere across Florida. It makes for a somewhat hazy sky and vivid sunrises and sunsets.

Elsewhere, nothing is expected to develop in the Atlantic this week.