After Fiona and Ian, the tropics are finally quiet

Tropical Depression Karl has dissipated over the Gulf coast of southern Mexico. Heavy rain will continue, however, with the possibility of flooding and mudslides in the higher elevations as what’s left of the system slowly pulls away to the west.

Otherwise, the Atlantic is clear of tropical systems that appear to have any potential to develop into the middle of next week, at least.

Hurricane season is probably over for the Gulf and East Coasts of the U.S., with the emphasis on probably. A fall/winter weather pattern is forecast to be reinforced next week, creating an atmospheric environment hostile to tropical systems.

The long-range computer models indicate that a nor’easter-type system might eventually develop when the next cold front moves off the Southeast coast, but that would be a non-tropical development.

Late in the season, it occasionally happens that a weird system develops and turns into a tropical threat, but there is no sign of that, at least this month.

In terms of adding to the list of named storms, that’s still possible. The water across much of the Atlantic is still warm, as it is in the Caribbean and southern Gulf. So far, we’ve seen 11 named storms form this season. The odds are we’ll add one or two to that list from systems well away from the U.S. before the cold air and hostile winds take over.

Enjoy the fall weather!