AFTERNOON TROPICS: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2019

TROPICAL STORM NESTOR HAS FORMED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEATHER IS ALREADY DETERIORATING ON THE GULF COAST EAST OF NEW ORLEANS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.

The complex, lopsided disturbance has organized enough for the National Hurricane Center to name it Tropical Storm Nestor. It is something of a combo-hybrid, made up of the tropical disturbance from the south, and a northern winter-type storm generated by energy from the northern jet stream, but the NHC analysis is that, for now, it is tropical enough to be designated a tropical storm.

The system will become increasingly non-tropical, but the technical name will not change the effects of the storm.

The weather will get quite nasty in the Florida Panhandle and surrounding areas – including in Panama City and Tallahassee – by this evening, peaking overnight. By tomorrow afternoon, the weather in the Panhandle should improve with the higher winds and heaviest rain moving on to Georgia and the Carolinas. The bad weather will spread far ahead of the center of the storm.

Winds are forecast to gust to about 70 mph, which can take down tree limbs and knock out power. Some tornadoes are also possible on the right side of the storm’s track.

Along the Florida coast from east of Apalachicola and around the Big Bend to near the Tampa area, dangerous storm surge is a significant threat. The storm is positioned to force Gulf water up over the shoreline to dangerous levels – up to 5 feet. It won’t be like Hurricane Michael last year, but coastal flooding is still expected. Even in Tampa Bay, 1 to 3 feet of storm surge is forecast.

Here are the Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center about the storm:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level beginning later today along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely later today and tonight along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and the southeast United States coast through Saturday night.

Otherwise, nothing is expected to develop in the tropics into the middle of next week, at least.

Otherwise, nothing is expected to develop in the tropics into the middle of next week, at least.