An Out-of-Season Nor'easter Threatens the East Coast, Nolo Threatens Hawaii, and Polo Threatens Baja California

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DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER

The developing storm is part of a big frontal system off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Strong high pressure over Quebec is squeezing the air north of the front, causing the relentless wind along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coast. Extra-high tides are causing significant coastal flooding from the high-pressure-driven wind.

A sharp dip in the jet stream will dive into the Southeast and scoop the developing storm north. Then the steering will collapse, and the nor'easter will be abandoned and left to drift near the Northeast or New England coast.

The exact location of the center of circulation of the coastal storm on Saturday evening is somewhat uncertain, but the consensus is high that it will be in a location to cause significant coastal flooding over a wide area. Unlike a tropical system, the strongest winds will not be near the center.

The reason the center is important is that the location dictates which harbors, inlets, and bays get direct onshore wind flow that can cause coastal flooding. Here are the forecast locations for four models. A slight difference in the location of the center changes the angle of the onshore winds along the coast.

The beachfront is threatened from the Carolinas to New England from relentless high tides, strong currents, and pounding waves. In addition, the long duration of onshore winds will cause river flooding in some areas because ocean water will push back against the normal flow.

The storm's intensity is forecast to peak Saturday into Sunday, but the system will not move out to sea until about Tuesday. Expect an extended period of ugly weather and dangerous coastal conditions into early next week.

Be aware of the many alerts that will likely be issued for your area by the National Weather Service over the next several days.

IN THE ATLANTIC

Just offshore of Africa, a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gonzalo has a high chance of forming from a disturbance that moved off Africa yesterday. The Cabo Verde Islands could be in the path.

To the north, Tropical Storm Fay has regenerated back into its named self. It only has a small window of supportive atmosphere before it dies out under hostile upper winds. There is no threat to land.

THE THREAT TO HAWAII

Tropical Storm Nolo is forecast to reach hurricane strength today or tonight as it slowly lifts north in the direction of the Big Island of Hawaii. The water is warm and the atmospheric pattern appears conducive to Nolo continuing to intensify.

The National Hurricane Center predicts that Hurricane Nolo will be near Category 3 strength when it makes its closest approach to the Big Island early on Saturday. The question is how close will the center of Nolo come?

High pressure will propel Nolo to the west later in the weekend. The uncertainty in the forecast is related to when that push from the high will take over.

The computer forecast models have shown high uncertainty in where the left turn will take place, but they are coming into better agreement. The odds now favor the dogleg to the left happening before the worst of the storm reaches the Big Island.

Still, the FOX Weather Damaging Wind graphic based on the Google DeepMind model shows threatening winds are possible, especially at higher elevations.

In any case, tropical moisture on the outer fringes of Nolo is already reaching Hawaii Island. The depth and intensity of the moisture will only increase as the storm moves closer over the next couple of days. A foot or two of rain is forecast across the Big Island with some locations receiving close to 3 feet. Dangerous flash flooding and mudslides reminiscent of Hurricane Lala are certainly possible.

Dangerous rainfall is also possible on the windward side of Maui. Otherwise, across the islands, rain will be heavy in spots, but should be manageable.

Everyone in Hawaii should stay well informed. Adjustments to the forecast are likely until Nolo fully develops.

IN THE PACIFIC CLOSE TO MEXICO

Category 5 Hurricane Polo continues on track offshore of southwestern Mexico. Outer rain bands are impacting the coastal mountains and dangerous flooding is possible. But most of the strong winds are staying offshore, for now.

About Monday, Polo is forecast to arc close to Baja California. There is divergence among the various computer forecasts on the exact locations that might be threatened. Everyone from Cabo San Lucas north in Baja California Sur should stay informed as the forecast evolves.

Another storm is likely to form behind Polo. The National Hurricane Center has development chances in the high range. This storm is tentatively forecast to track closer to the Mexican coast, so an extended period of vigilance is going to be required there.

And the NHC is noting yet another low-odds potential development area between Mexico and Hawaii. Tentatively, there is no apparent threat from this system.