Atlantic disturbance (Invest #96L) is running out of time to develop

Hostile upper-level winds continue to make life difficult for the Tropical Disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic. The system is officially known as Invest #96L, which just means the National Hurricane Center has designated it for investigation.

The system has a healthy circulation and a robust cluster of thunderstorms, but they aren’t aligned. The thunderstorms need to wrap around the center for the system to be upgraded to a depression or named. The upper winds and dry air appear to be keeping that from happening.

A strong frontal system is bearing down, and cooler waters are ahead as the disturbance tracks to the north. Computer forecasts no longer show the system developing, and the National Hurricane Center only gives it a slight chance. It will likely run out of time tomorrow.

The tropical Atlantic continues to be dominated by dry air and Saharan dust, and upper-level winds over much of the Caribbean continue to be hostile to tropical development.

Recall that last year, nothing was developing until suddenly it was. We’ll stand by for signs the pattern might change, but there’s no indication of any significant development for the next week, at least.