Atlantic Tropical Disturbance #94L Showing Some Signs of Life

The disturbance we've been following in the tropical Atlantic has perked up a little. The National Hurricane Center has tagged it Invest #94L. They still have its odds of developing into at least a tropical depression in the low category, but they've increased them slightly.

The atmospheric conditions immediately ahead are reasonably conducive to tropical development. They would be very conducive if there weren't so much dry air nearby. Saharan dust blankets the ocean just north of and around the disturbance.

The system's best chance of developing is tonight. By late tomorrow, as the disturbance is approaching the Caribbean, the upper-level winds will increase, and no further development is expected.

Most likely, the system will move across the islands as a gusty moisture surge late tomorrow or Wednesday. In the meantime, however, it could organize enough to be designated a tropical depression, with a very slight chance that it briefly becomes Tropical Storm Dexter.

Invest #94L is the first in a series of robust disturbances moving off Africa. Saharan dust plumes are still thick, but gaps are allowing some thunderstorms to develop within the clusters of moisture. On average, Saharan dust begins to wane late in July, although its schedule varies year to year.

Some long-range computer forecasts indicate that the next systems in the wave train moving across the Atlantic will be a little more robust than we have seen. This is expected, of course, with August right around the corner.

In the Gulf

Just like the week before last, a front is going to die out across North Florida in a few days. A low-pressure area is forecast to develop along the old front and track west across the northern Gulf.

There is no sign of tropical development at this point, but we'll keep an eye on it. In any case, it will bring another round of heavy rain to the Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula.

On average, this part of July is slow in the tropics, so nothing unusual is going on. The traditional start of the busy part of the hurricane season is August 20. There's no reason to think that this season isn't going to ramp up on schedule.