Atlantic tropical disturbance following a familiar track into the Caribbean

Tropical Disturbance #1 just approaching the southern Caribbean islands is retreading the path that the disturbance that became Hurricane Ian took just two weeks ago. But the weather pattern in the western Caribbean is completely different, and this system is very unlikely to affect the United States.

Like the pre-Ian disturbance, this system will move across Trinidad and Tobago and the surrounding islands as a gusty moisture surge. The ABC Islands – Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao – will feel the effects tonight and tomorrow, as will the northern coast of Venezuela.

This is where the tracks of this system and pre-Ian will diverge. The disturbance that became Ian began to lift north in the vicinity of the ABC Islands. Tropical Disturbance #1 is forecast to continue west, hugging the Venezuelan coast.

It’s a close call whether the disturbance will be able to organize enough to be deemed a tropical depression while it’s close to land for the next two days. But by Friday or Saturday, it will be in the western Caribbean, where the water is very warm, and the atmospheric environment is forecast to be conducive for development and strengthening.

When Ian was strengthening in a similar location, a dip in the jet stream plunged into the Gulf of Mexico and scooped it north. This time, however, a blocking high-pressure system will be over the Gulf, which will prevent that from happening.

Folks in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Yucatán Mexico should watch the progress of this system. It could become a significant storm before reaching Central America over the weekend.

Tropical Depression Twelve formed from the disturbance we were watching in the eastern Atlantic. It has a slight chance of developing into Tropical Storm Julia before it dies in the next day or so. Though that opportunity appears less likely than it did yesterday. In any case, it is in the open ocean and of no consequence.

No other systems appear likely to develop through next weekend at least.