Caribbean disturbance is mostly a moisture surge in Central America

The disturbance we’ve been following across Central America still has a slight chance to briefly organize a circulation as it tracks over the northwestern Caribbean Sea today. The biggest threat, however, is significant and dangerous flooding over Honduras, Belize, and part of southeastern Mexico and northern Guatemala.

The Caribbean disturbance has been rotating around the north side of a broad low-pressure area that straddles Central America and extends into the Pacific. A tropical depression has formed in the pocket of the low that is over the Pacific. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to meander offshore before strengthening into a tropical storm and eventually moving away from land.

The developing Pacific system became the dominate system within the broad low, which was part of the reason the Caribbean system has not developed.

Otherwise, nothing is expected to develop in the Atlantic into next week, at least. The tropics are dominated by Saharan dust and dry air.