Chance for a Storm Developing East of the Bahamas to Be Named Kyle This Week

A broad non-tropical low-pressure system is likely to form from a dying front northeast of the Bahamas over the next day or two. Thursday and Friday, as it tracks out to sea over the warm Atlantic waters, it could become tropical enough to be named Subtropical or Tropical Storm Kyle by the National Hurricane Center.

This situation is different from the system that became Josephine offshore of New England last month because the front is already very weak – there is little contrast between the air north and south of the frontal boundary that stretches across the Atlantic. But it's similar to Josephine in that there is strong high pressure to the north, which will squeeze the air to create strong winds whether it becomes tropical or not.

The upper-level flow is too strong right now to allow development, but starting tomorrow and especially Thursday and Friday, a more conducive atmospheric environment is forecast to slide over the system. By the weekend, the hostile winds look likely to return.

The coming pocket of atmosphere looks borderline supportive of development, and the pieces will only be in place for a couple of days, so the National Hurricane Center is keeping the odds of the system consolidating enough to meet the criteria of a tropical or subtropical storm in the low range.

If it does break away from the front and briefly show independent organization, it will get the name Kyle. The winds with the original non-tropical low are already forecast to be over 40 mph due to the high pressure to the north, so the system would likely jump right to named-storm status.

Subtropical or Tropical Storm Kyle's main function in life would be to add to the 2026 list. The system, whatever form it takes, will move away from land and soon die out over the open Atlantic.