Coastal Impacts Continue as the Nor'easter #93L Makes a Run at Morphing into Josephine

The persistent nor'easter that is officially tagged Invest 93L continues to spin about 350 miles offshore of Virginia Beach. Top winds with the system are estimated at 50 mph with stronger gusts. The persistent north to northeast winds on the system’s west side continue to push ocean water onto and over the coast from North Carolina to New Jersey, especially at high tide. River flooding is also occurring because the high tides are holding back the water.

Stay aware of local forecasts for coastal sections. As the storm slowly moves to the north and intensifies, winds will increase a bit along the Jersey Shore and southeastern New England. Gusts at the coast could reach 40+ mph.

The nor'easter is centered so far offshore that most of the coast will only see gusty winds and elevated tides, but Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and especially Nantucket will likely receive rain from the outer edge of the storm.

ODDS OF GETTING A NAME

The nor'easter is making a good effort to get named. The system has developed a core that looks a lot like a tropical storm over the unusually warm ocean water offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.

Recall that this system started as a part of a frontal system that was the leading edge of the cool air that continues across the eastern part of the U.S. The remnants of that front still exist, so in toto, the system is non-tropical. Since the storm will be over warm water today and tomorrow, the temperature difference across the front will slowly dissipate.

The National Hurricane Center has the odds in the medium range that the nor’easter will completely shed its front and take on a tropical configuration today or tomorrow. By Friday, the system, whether it's tropical or not, will be moving over colder water and heading out to sea, although it might brush Atlantic Canada.

Winds are already above tropical storm force, so it would jump right to Josephine if it sheds the front. Since it's developing thunderstorms so close to the center, it's looking more like a tropical storm than a so-called subtropical storm.

What's the most important, however, is that the change in status to a tropical system is a distinction without a difference in terms of impacts along the coast.

The most important aspect of the forecast is that by late tomorrow, the onshore and alongshore winds will let up. The long assault on the beaches and waterways of the Mid-Atlantic will be over.

IN THE PACIFIC NEAR MEXICO

Tropical Storm Vance is likely to form out of the disturbance that is expected to develop offshore of southern Mexico. The consensus of the computer forecast models is that it will eventually turn into yet another hurricane tracking along or just offshore of the west-central Mexican coast.

Surges of moisture from these Pacific storms will continue to feed into the Southwest. Stay aware. Flood alerts are becoming a regular feature in the weather forecasts in that part of the country.