Developing Low Pressure in the Atlantic Still Has a Chance to Be Named Kyle

A non-tropical low-pressure system is strengthening south of Bermuda. The system developed from an old front and an upper-air disturbance embedded in the El Niño-driven jet stream – the same disturbance that enhanced the latest round of flooding rains in Florida.

Upper-level winds are currently super hostile to tropical development, but a small window of marginally conducive atmosphere could open over the next few days.

Winds on the north side of the developing low are already above 40 mph. The air is being squeezed between high pressure offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast and the low pressure of the system. As a result, if the atmospheric environment allows thunderstorms to organize around the center, the system will skip the depression stage and go directly to being a named storm.

The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a medium chance of meeting the criteria to be named Subtropical Storm Kyle. The window of opportunity is pretty short. By early next week, the possibility is likely to end. In the meantime, potential-Kyle will have to fight off strong upper-level winds and dry air, but the system still has a chance to land in the 2026 record book.

The good news is that the latest disturbance impacting Florida has moved on and relatively dry air will cover the state through the weekend. The El Niño-powered jet stream will continue across the southern U.S., however. So more rounds of stormy weather will be likely across the southern tier from coast to coast.