Development Likely in the Atlantic and Pacific – Hawaii on Alert

IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

The system about a third of the way from Africa to the Caribbean shows some signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center has the odds in the high range that it will develop into at least a tropical depression somewhere in the red potential development area.

The system will track in the general direction of the northeast Caribbean for the next few days. The NHC's development zone is long because it's uncertain where and when the window of development opportunity might open.

The system will have to consolidate more moisture, but it will be fighting with Saharan dust all along the way. As it gets near the islands, hostile upper-level winds will become an issue. These negative factors should keep the system from becoming very strong. It has a slight chance of developing into a low-end tropical storm. The name would be Cristobal.

The computer forecast models are divergent on whether the system can fight off the dust and upper winds long enough to strengthen much at all. In fact, the AI models don’t focus on the NHC’s system but instead give the one behind it a better chance to come together.

The depression or storm looks to be in the general vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean islands about Sunday. If the general atmospheric hostility wins out, and the system stays fairly weak as looks most likely at the moment, the odds favor it tracking into the northeast Caribbean and bringing beneficial rain to Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands.

On the other hand, if it finds a bubble of atmosphere conducive to development, a stronger system is more likely to turn north into the open Atlantic before it reaches the islands.

As always, forecasts for a system that has not yet developed are prone to greater errors and are likely to change. Don't focus on any one prediction at this point.

APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN

A separate disturbance will move across the Windward Islands and into the southeast Caribbean tonight and tomorrow. It is not expected to develop and instead will cross the islands as a moisture surge and die in the Caribbean.

NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC

A non-tropical disturbance will track into the open ocean well east of the U.S. East Coast and north of Bermuda. The NHC gives it a low chance of becoming a depression. In any case, it won't affect land.

HAWAII ON ALERT

The disturbance the NHC is officially calling Invest 93C is still over 1,000 miles southeast of Hawaii Island. The strong consensus of the computer forecast models is that it will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane and move in the general direction of Hawaii this week.

On the current schedule, the system will track over or near the Hawaiian Islands late Saturday through Sunday. Everybody in Hawaii should stay well informed this week as the situation develops. There is the potential for significant storm impacts.

The exclusive FOX Weather Tropical Threat graphic shows the consensus of the best performing models – both AI and traditional. The threat to Hawaii is obvious, but slight deviations make a big difference on the scale and location of impacts. As the system develops, the potential track is still likely to shift.

There's no way to know at this point which island or which side of the islands will be most affected. Knowing the exact track of the storm is critical to predicting which slopes will get the heaviest rain or strongest winds. Everybody in Hawaii needs to stay aware.

The uncertainty is the same as with the system in the Atlantic. Until the disturbance coalesces into an organized system, the forecasts will have intrinsic uncertainty. For now, the important message is that the odds are increasing of impacts over the weekend to some part or much of the State of Hawaii.

BETWEEN MEXICO AND HAWAII

Another system is likely to develop into a tropical storm between Mexico and Hawaii. It is not expected to be of any consequence, however. It should track north and die out over the open eastern Pacific.