Disheveled Tropical Storm Bertha Tracking Across the Northern Gulf

Tropical Storm Bertha is producing some winds gusting near hurricane force, but they are confined to a robust thunderstorm cell near the center of rotation well offshore of the Florida Panhandle.

Dry air has penetrated the circulation since the get-go and continues to be an inhibiting factor. In addition, the upper-level winds over the Gulf are hostile to dramatic development.

Bertha might intensify a bit more, but the strong upper winds are forecast to increase as it tracks in the direction of southeastern Louisiana, so the intensity is likely to peak soon, and the strongest winds will stay offshore. The National Hurricane Center's forecast shows slow weakening beginning tomorrow.

Some outer bands containing gusty tropical downpours are arcing over the coast and adjacent inland areas. There is some potential for flash flooding in isolated spots. But most of the heavy rain will remain offshore.

Bertha's main effect will be at the coast. The persistent and strong winds on the backside of the circulation will push Gulf water above the normal tide levels. A water rise of 2 to 4 feet above normal high tide is possible, especially in the low-lying areas of southern Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana.

In addition, the surf will be dangerous with large waves and rip currents likely. Pay attention to alerts.

There's high confidence that Bertha's center will track west offshore of the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama. As the system nears Mississippi and Alabama late on Wednesday, the forecast is less certain.

The most reliable computer forecasts – both the consensus of traditional models and the Google DeepMind model – indicate that the increasing upper winds could rip the system apart, disconnecting the upper circulation from the one we track at ground level. In that case, the system would die out over or near southern Louisiana. But that's not 100%.

Whether it's a weaker system or just a remnant, tropical moisture with some gusty winds could continue west toward Texas. There is no indication of a strong storm impacting the Texas coast, however.

Poorly developed systems over the very warm Gulf water can surprise us, so everyone along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas should stay aware.

Track errors for weak systems are, on average, three times as large as they are for strong hurricanes. When a system is moving slowly like this, it compounds the uncertainty. So stay informed, just in case.