DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HEADS TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA

Tropical Storm Arthur formed more or less on schedule last night off the Florida coast. It’s a poorly organized system with top winds at the low end of tropical-storm strength. The worst weather is all pushed to the east side of the storm – away from land.

The ocean water under Arthur is on the cool side, and the upper winds are forecast to become less favorable for strengthening through today and into tomorrow, so major intensification is not expected.

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track takes the storm near or over extreme eastern North Carolina tomorrow. They’re likely to get some very gusty winds, tropical downpours, and perhaps some tidal flooding. The Outer Banks in North Carolina are very susceptible to local flooding, but this is not expected to be a hard hit.

The moisture tail from Arthur that caused the heavy thunderstorms in Broward and Palm Beach Counties yesterday has pulled away as the storm has moved north. Slightly drier air pushed in on the back side of Arthur’s circulation, which gave us lots of sunshine, except for those narrow lines of storms. The moisture will only slightly increase today, so we’re expecting plenty of sun, although some storms should pop up in the heating of the day.

Remember, Arthur formed from wintertime weather processes. The wintertime regime visits Florida occasionally in May and early June, and then retreats north for most of the summer. We’ll be on the lookout for another of these hybrid systems for the next few weeks, but nothing appears in the offing at least through next weekend.