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  • Writer's pictureBryan Norcross

Disturbance called Invest 92-L is likely to become a depression or storm today

It’s rare to have a robust disturbance moving across the tropical Atlantic this time of year, let alone two that have a chance of developing. The first disturbance is labeled Invest 92-L by the National Hurricane Center. It is still technically a disturbance, but it’s given that “invest” label as an alert that special computer forecast models are being run that focus on that system. The system is likely to be designated a tropical depression or tropical storm today.

The New Disturbance behind it, which is now labeled Invest 93-L, also continues to show signs of development.

Invest 92-L appears increasingly organized. We’re just beginning to see slight curvature to the band of thunderstorms on the north side of the system, there is plenty of moisture around it, and the ocean below is unusually warm for June.

The atmospheric pattern is not ideal, but it’s not entirely hostile either. The computer forecast models are near unanimous that the system will continue to develop as it heads to the west in the direction of the Caribbean islands.

If the NHC determines that 40 mph winds have developed in the circulation, the system will be designated Tropical Storm Bret.

On the current schedule, the system will arrive in the vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean Islands Thursday or Friday.

The future intensity is an open question. There is a lot of dry air around the system, and the upper-level winds above will slowly become more hostile.

The indications are, however, that the system will curve north before it gets to the islands if it develops into a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Some computer forecasts raise that possibility.

The odds at this point, however, favor a moderate to weak tropical storm taking a more southern track through the islands into the Caribbean.

The divergence in the track possibilities is related to the system’s speed of movement and how it interacts with the dry air and generally a more-hostile environment when it gets to the vicinity of the islands.

If the system tracks into the Caribbean, the current forecasts show the atmospheric pattern becoming quite hostile, so it should encounter tough sledding.

Everybody in the northeastern Caribbean, including on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should stay up to date this week. But currently, there are no indications the wanna-be Bret would be a strong system if it has an impact. It still could be disruptive, however.

There is no threat to the U.S., the Bahamas, or surrounding areas.

Behind potential-Bret, new Invest 93-L is given a decent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression at this point. The atmospheric pattern over this system is a bit more conducive for development than it has been over wanna-be Bret. So this disturbance might organize into a tropical depression more quickly. However, early indications are that it will battle more dry air, which might limit its potential strength.

The computer forecasts show this system following Bret across the tropical Atlantic. How the atmosphere behind wanna-be Bret evolves will dictate its future. There is no indication at the current time that it would threaten land.

Around the world, the global oceans and large bodies of water have suddenly dramatically warmed to record levels – including around the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean, and, importantly for us, the far eastern Atlantic. It isn’t clear why, but it is very likely to affect weather patterns on the planet. Expect unusual weather for the foreseeable future.


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