First Strong Fall Cold Front to Push Through Florida while Hurricane Simon Threatens Mexico

IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

A large area of disturbed weather west of the Cabo Verde Islands is struggling to develop due to strong upper-level winds. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a low chance of being able to overcome the challenging atmospheric environment.

The system has only a day or two to consolidate before the upper-level winds are forecast to become prohibitive. In the long run, some long-range computer forecasts show the system eventually tracking in the direction of the Azores Islands. It will be something to watch for them.

FALL COLD FRONT

The first relatively strong cold front of the fall will push through South Florida late Tuesday. It is loosely related to the tail of the system that was Isaias. Another stronger front is due next week. Cold fronts moving across the Gulf Coast and down the Florida Peninsula are barriers to tropical systems impacting the U.S. and surrounding areas. So we won't have any problems for the forecastable future.

Sometimes, of course, fronts can linger over the northwest Caribbean or the southern Gulf and develop into something annoying. There's no signal worth thinking about at the moment, but it's always something we watch until the seasonal change looks permanent.

HURRICANE SIMON NEAR MEXICO

Hurricane Simon has weakened to Category 3 strength. It's slowly tracking north, just offshore of the Mexican coast southwest of Puerto Vallarta. Impacts from flooding rain in the higher elevations and dangerously high tides will occur within the Hurricane Warning zone along the west-central coast of Mexico. Damaging winds will impact the area near where the center makes landfall.

Everybody in the storm zone needs to be sure they're in a safe place and are aware of the water and/or wind threats in their location.

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE PACIFIC

Another system has a high chance of developing into Tropical Storm or Hurricane Trudy. Long-range forecasts show a possibility of it tracking near the same part of the Mexican coast around next weekend.