Florida watching as soon-to-be Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to stall over Central America

The odds of a strong hurricane impacting Florida have decreased, but a dangerous event can yet be completely ruled out. The strong consensus of the various computer forecasts is that the Caribbean tropical system – soon to be Tropical Storm Sara – will spend so much time over the landmass of Central America that it will be a relatively weak system when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

The Caribbean disturbance we've been following has formed a well-enough defined circulation to be upgraded to Tropical Depression NINETEEN. The system is approaching the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Steering currents are forecast to collapse, so the system looks likely to meander near or over the Honduran coast through the weekend.

Extreme rainfall is likely to fall over the mountains of northern Honduras – up to 30 inches in some areas. Severe flooding and mudslides due to the stalled storm are possible over a good part of Central America.

The atmospheric pattern is forecast to remain unusually conducive for the system to organize and strengthen. The National Hurricane Center forecasts likely-Tropical Storm Sara to be approaching hurricane strength just off the northern coast of Honduras by the end of the weekend. If the storm drifts farther inland, however, it's likely to be weaker. If it stays far enough offshore, it could dramatically strengthen.

We are threading a needle here. A little jog to the north or south will make an enormous difference in how strong the storm is on Sunday. In addition, Sara's strength will likely affect which track it takes when a corridor opens to the north, which obviously adds uncertainty to its path across the Gulf toward Florida.

About Monday, the steering pattern is forecast to change. A high-pressure area over the Bahamas and a jet stream scoop moving toward the Gulf from Texas are forecast to team up to push Sara toward the Gulf.

If the storm tracks over Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula, as most forecasts now indicate, it will likely weaken significantly. But if it stays to the right side of the cone and shoots the gap between Mexico and Cuba, it could still be a strong hurricane when it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

By Tuesday, Sara will likely be accelerating toward Florida, based on what we know now. Landfall would be on Wednesday.

There is high confidence that a path into the Gulf and then toward some part of Florida will open up. Because of the possibility of significant land interaction, however, the strength of the storm early next week and, therefore, exactly how it will interact with the steering currents are unknowable.

Credible computer forecasts indicate that landfall could occur from the Florida Panhandle to South Florida. There are too many variables to pin it down yet. Most of the long-range forecasts, but not all, bring Sara or what's left of it to the coast as a minor system, so there's room for optimism, but we can't be 100% sure. That scenario has a much better chance of working out if the storm tracks over land and stays weak while it's in and around the Caribbean.

As always, forecasts for systems that are just developing are subject to large errors and are likely to change. For now, everybody from Panama City to Miami and Key West should plan to check the forecast over the weekend.

I'm sure you're as sick of reading these posts as I am of writing them. But here we are. Stay informed to stay safe.