Getting Closer to Tropical Development in the Atlantic and a Threat to Hawaii

The National Hurricane Center is identifying two areas to watch in the eastern tropical Atlantic, plus one far to the north. The interesting one is the right one in orange. It has a medium chance of developing into at least a tropical depression this week.

There are actually two centers – one over the Atlantic and one still over Africa. The Atlantic system is expected to absorb the moisture of the African system. The combo has a good chance of fighting off the nearby Saharan dust enough to get organized.

The consensus of the computer forecast models is that the system will track in the general direction of the Caribbean islands for the rest of the week. At some point before reaching the Caribbean, however, most forecast scenarios show the depression or storm lifting slightly to the north.

If the system develops into Tropical Storm Cristobal, it looks likely to turn north before reaching the islands and track into the open ocean. The various computer forecasts are split, however. Some keep it on the weaker side – a depression or just a disturbance – and track it to the northeast Caribbean.

The latter scenario would be a real positive because it would bring desperately needed rain to Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands.

As always, forecasts for systems that are weak, disorganized, and especially those that haven't yet formed have high intrinsic uncertainty and are subject to change.

On the current schedule, the system would be in the vicinity of the northeastern Caribbean islands next Sunday or Monday. At that time, the upper-level winds are forecast to be extremely hostile, so unless the storm can somehow sneak by in a pocket of slightly supportive atmosphere, there's a decent chance it will dissipate.

THE SOUTHERN YELLOW AREA

The NHC's yellow potential development area means that the odds of a tropical depression forming there are in the low range.

This system has less moisture to work with and appears to be on a more westerly track, which will take it into the teeth of the hostile upper-level winds. The current odds favor the system arriving in the southeastern Caribbean as a moisture surge midweek. But the caveat above applies. It will bear watching.

NORTH ATLANTIC YELLOW AREA

A non-tropical disturbance has a slight chance of taking on some tropical characteristics as it tracks into the open ocean. It is no threat to land.

IN THE PACIFIC

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting three potential development areas, but the red one on the left is attached to the significant system. The other two have a medium and low chance to develop but are unlikely to affect land.

The consensus of the computer forecast models is that the left-hand system will organize and intensify into a tropical storm or hurricane as it heads in the general direction of Hawaii. On the current schedule, the storm would be approaching Hawaii Island late Friday and spreading across the state over the weekend.

Whether the worst of the storm tracks near or over the islands is unknowable at this time, but there is the potential for a significant storm affecting all of Hawaii. Most of the potential track forecasts by the Google and European AI models keep the worst of the storm south of Hawaii, while the traditional models like the Euro bring the system near or over the islands.

There is no evidence that this system could become a super strong storm, like Hurricane Iniki, for example. But it could spread hazardous conditions across the state.

The caveat above applies. Since the system hasn't even formed yet, the forecasts are likely to change. So it's important for everyone in Hawaii to stay well informed throughout the week.