Hints of Tropical Development in the Caribbean Late Next Week

A disorganized tropical disturbance is plodding across the stretch of ocean from Africa to the Caribbean. Atmospheric conditions do not look conducive for it to develop much before it reaches the islands - most likely the Windward Islands - next Sunday or Monday. Once it reaches the western Caribbean later next week, however, some computer forecasts predict the pattern will allow the system to organize and strengthen.

The possibilities range from no development at all to a strong hurricane. Taking all of the credible forecasts together, the odds of the system developing into at least a depression in the Caribbean over the next 10 days are about 20-30%, and the odds of it strengthening into a strong storm are less than 10%.

The exclusive FOX Weather Tropical Threat analysis shows the large light blue area where development of a circulation is possible, but the odds in any one spot are very low. The dark blue areas show where the aggregate of the European, U.S. GFS, and Google DeepMind models indicate slightly higher odds that a system could develop between now and a week from Friday.

It's important to note, however, that all forecasts for undeveloped systems are subject to large errors and likely to change. The takeaway is that we might have to be paying close attention to the weather pattern over the western Caribbean next week. Will it be conducive for the system to strengthen, and will there be a dip in the jet stream deep enough to pull the system north if it develops?

Don’t look at any specific super-long-range forecasts that you might see online. There is nothing to know now beyond the fact that a system might develop somewhere in the western Caribbean too far in the future for the forecasts to mean anything. The best we can do right at the moment is look at the odds.

It would be unusual for a system to develop over the tropical Atlantic and head directly into the Caribbean this time of year – most historic storms have turned north. If we're going to have a system organize and strengthen in October, however, the western Caribbean is a prime place for it to happen because the waters are still quite warm. And this year they are significantly warmer than average.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo

Lorenzo is having a rough life. It's heading north in the open Atlantic and is forecast to die out in the next day or so without amounting to much. The remnants might make an interesting loop, but no land will be affected.