Hostile Conditions Prevent Tropical Development for the Foreseeable Future

Disturbances are moving off Africa on schedule. If they take a northern track, they quickly run into Saharan dust and lose their moisture. If they take a southern track, they last longer, but they still have to run the dust gauntlet and eventually run into El Niño-driven hostile upper-level winds.

Ocean water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are cooler than they have been the last few years, so there's no extra energy to overcome the unsupportive atmospheric conditions.

The net-net is the National Hurricane Center is predicting no tropical development this week, and long-range computer forecast models show nothing into mid-August.

The waters around Florida and in the Gulf are very warm. In El Niño years, if something is going to develop, it's more likely to be closer to the Bahamas or the U.S., so we'll watch for systems that might organize on our side of the Atlantic.

Later this month, the Saharan dust is likely to wane, and the water temperatures will warm up. But the hostile upper-level winds from El Niño will continue through the season. If things go like they have in El Niño seasons in the past, little to nothing will develop in the Caribbean or the deep tropics.

We can’t go to sleep on the season, however. Annoying things have developed in strong El Niño seasons in the past.