Hurricane Oscar rapidly develops shocking computers and forecasters

Yesterday, it was a tropical disturbance that looked unlikely to develop, and today, it's a rapidly strengthening hurricane. No computer forecast models anticipated Hurricane Oscar's sudden development. Hurricane Warnings were hurriedly issued for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Oscar is a tiny hurricane, which is a big part of the forecast challenge. These midget storms can spin up in a hurry, but also can fall apart quickly if a puff of hostile upper-level winds comes along. Computer forecasts are based on a grid, and important aspects of little storms can fall inside the grid spacing.

Hurricane-force winds only extend about 6 miles from the center on the north and east side of the circulation, so Oscar's biggest impacts will be over a very small area. Hurricane-force gusts extend out about 25 miles.

It appears that the center of Hurricane Oscar will pass over or through the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon and this evening. It's possible that the hurricane's small core will directly impact one or more of those islands.

The storm quickly spun up into a Category 1, and now that it has a core, indications are that intensification will continue. Residents should be ready for at least a Category 2.

Tomorrow, Hurricane Oscar is forecast to drift toward the northeast coast of Cuba before strong upper-level winds begin to take their toll. The weakening storm will lift to the north and die out by the middle of the week.

Surprise hurricanes are extremely unusual, obviously. But they occasionally happen. Hurricane Humberto in 2007 comes to mind. It spun up from a tropical depression to a hurricane in one day right offshore of the upper Texas coast, which set a record for rapid development and intensification.

Oscar looks likely to beat Humberto's record by many hours when the data is carefully analyzed. Humberto was also a tiny storm that took advantage of a small pocket of atmosphere that was extremely conducive for development.

Hurricane Oscar is no threat to the U.S.

Oscar is the 10th hurricane of the eventful 2024 season. And it's the 10th time in the record book that a season has had this many hurricanes, according to stats guru Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. There's no guarantee, of course, that another hurricane won't develop this season.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE made landfall late this morning in Belize, but is still spreading tropical storm conditions across the northern half of that country and Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Heavy rain will cause flooding and possible landslides over southern Mexico and surrounding parts of Central America. Nadine's circulation should die out tomorrow, but the rain threat will continue.

LOOKING AHEAD, the tropics should go calm after these systems fade out - at least through Halloween. We'll see after that. November storms are not impossible.