Impactful Nor'easter Possible Next Week from North Carolina to New Jersey

A NOTE: Billy Wagner passed away this week. Every longtime Florida Keys resident knew Billy. For 25 years until 2006, he served as Monroe County emergency manager. But he was much more. Billy was an emergency manager's emergency manager – sharing his expertise with decision-makers across the hurricane zone when life-changing storms were threatening. If I ever wanted to know what was really going on "out there," Billy was my first call. The reality of the situation on the ground always seemed to funnel through Billy. He was one of a kind in the emergency business… and in life.

OFF THE EAST COAST

A strong cold front is powering off the East Coast today. The coldest air of the year will blow in behind it. The front will push down the Florida Peninsula, but only slowly ease across South Florida, where heavy rain is expected.

The contrast of the cold air behind the front and the warm Gulf Stream ocean water offshore of the Carolinas is expected to energize the formation of a low-pressure system – a nor'easter. Exactly how far offshore it will form, and where it moves, will make a tremendous difference in the severity of the impacts along the East Coast from North Carolina to at least New Jersey.

In any case, strong northeast winds and dangerous waves are expected to pound much of the same coastline that was damaged by last month's nor'easter. High tides will run 2 to 4 feet above normal over a long stretch of the Mid-Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras.

The various computer forecast models are all over the place on the eventual track of the storm, but they generally agree that it will move slowly. It is likely that it will impact the coast through multiple high tide cycles over 3 or 4 days.

The system is trapped between a high-pressure system over the Midwest and another high over the Atlantic, so the steering currents are very light. As with tropical storms, forecasts for slow-moving nor'easters are prone to large errors and subject to change.

If the system drifts toward the coast, as a minority of the possible forecasts indicate, the impacts will be amplified. Coastal residents from North Carolina to Long Island, New York, should plan to stay up-to-date on the latest forecast over the next several days.

If the system were to meander near North Carolina or Virginia, where the ocean is unusually warm, there is a slight chance that the front could dissipate and the system could become somewhat tropical. The odds of that occurring are low. The cold front is quite strong and completely negating that cold/warm air contrast would likely be a lengthy process.

The National Hurricane Center is not mentioning that possibility. Their forecast for the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf shows no development for the next week, at least.

The dynamic jet stream that is driving fronts far to the south and creating pockets of extreme weather across the country can still contribute to tropical development in the Gulf or east of Florida over near the Bahamas this year. As is usually the case, the hurricane season is not over until it's over.

IN THE PACIFIC NEAR MEXICO

The storms offshore of Mexico took an interesting turn yesterday. The system that was Tropical Storm Simon dissipated into a remnant low. And formerly powerful Hurricane Trudy weakened dramatically. It still could impact the Mexican coast near Manzanillo or just to the north as a strong storm, however. Everyone there should stay informed.

Another system farther south has a high chance of developing according to the NHC. It looks likely to get the name Vance. Again, it could eventually track near or over the west-central Mexican coast.