Inconsequential Tropical Storm Fay Spins in the Atlantic While Coastal Mexico Goes on Alert for Polo

IN THE ATLANTIC

Tropical Storm Fay flared up and briefly threatened to become a hurricane, but it appears to have missed its chance. The storm is in the middle of the Atlantic and is driving into hostile territory. It's forecast to die out tomorrow.

It's extremely unusual, of course, to get this far into the season with the Atlantic hurricane-free. But this week is only the mid-point of the hurricane season for South Florida, if you average landfall dates over the long-term record. So we stay vigilant.

IN THE PACIFIC

The Eastern Pacific is once again rife with storms. Most notable is Tropical Storm Polo, which formed well offshore of Acapulco. It's forecast to drift around for a day or so and then head north paralleling the Mexican coast.

The atmospheric environment is extremely conducive to strengthening, so the National Hurricane Center has a very aggressive forecast which predicts Polo will quickly reach Category 4 strength.

The current forecast anticipates that likely-Hurricane Polo will remain offshore, but there is more uncertainty than average in the future track. The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the part of the southwest coast closest to Polo's predicted track, which will obviously be extended and upgraded if the forecast shifts east. The uncertainty should decrease after Polo gets more organized and into a defined steering environment.

Some long-range forecasts eventually track Polo in the general direction of Cabo San Lucas. Everyone on the Mexican coast should stay informed.

Farther west is Tropical Storm Odalys. It is not expected to be a threat to land. Some computer forecasts show Odalys interacting with Polo in some fashion in several days. If predictions are right, Polo will be the stronger storm and will dominate, but each can still influence the track of the other, which adds uncertainty to the forecast.

Behind Polo, another system is forecast to develop offshore of southern Mexico. The National Hurricane Center gives it a medium chance of becoming at least a tropical depression. Long-range forecasts show it developing into a strong storm near the Mexican coast as well.

Southeast of Hawaii are the Remnants of Tropical Depression 15E. The system is likely to redevelop into at least a depression if not a tropical storm or hurricane as it tracks south of the islands. It looks likely to bring a significant tropical moisture surge to the windward side of the Big Island and Maui beginning Wednesday. The consensus of the forecasts is that the moisture will spread across the state for the second half of this week.

When the Eastern Pacific goes crazy like this, the Atlantic is often quiet. And here we are.