Increasing Development Odds for the Atlantic Tropical Disturbance

A cluster of sustained thunderstorms has developed related to the large tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic, but the system is very disorganized. It's surrounded by dry and dusty air, so it's not expected to be able to develop an organized circulation for at least a couple of days.

By the middle or end of this week, however, the National Hurricane Center has set the odds in the high range that the system will develop into at least a tropical depression somewhere in the large red-hatched area. The consensus of the computer forecasts is that the system will develop into Tropical Storm or Hurricane Gabrielle.

The preliminary track forecasts range from the system turning north into the central Atlantic to tracking reasonably close to the Caribbean islands and potentially turning into a threat for Bermuda next week.

There is no indication of a direct threat to Puerto Rico and the nearby islands, but the system hasn't even formed yet. Until that happens, as we've seen, forecasts are subject to significant changes. Everybody on the northeastern Caribbean islands should stay up with the latest forecasts this week.

Otherwise, even the long-range computer models show next to no tropical activity after this disturbance. Tropical activity is suppressed around the entire Northern Hemisphere for reasons that are unclear. Regardless of the reasons, we take these things one week at a time, and all is good for now.