• Bryan Norcross


Tropical Storm Kyle set a record for being the earliest-developing “K” storm in the record book. It beat infamous Hurricane Katrina’s development in 2005 by 10 days. But, while that’s interesting, it’s not representative of the intensity of this hurricane season.

Kyle and the first six storms of this year developed from non-tropical systems that tracked over warm water and were able to gain enough tropical characteristics to get named. These storms are entirely different from the storms early in 2005 season, when the first 11 included five hurricanes – two of them reaching Category 5.

The bottom line is, the real tropical hurricane season hasn’t yet kicked in.

Tropical Storm Josephine is hanging on, but should start to weaken over the weekend as it passes the Caribbean islands to the north. The upper-level winds will become increasingly hostile, and Josephine is forecast to dissipate under their onslaught in the next few days. The remnants of the system will turn north well east of the U.S. East Coast.

Tropical Storm Kyle moved off the Mid-Atlantic coast over the Gulf Stream yesterday and promptly got named. It is forecast to intensify a bit as it speeds east into the North Atlantic. It will get absorbed into a larger northern weather system in the next few days.

The tropical Atlantic is quiet and is forecast to remain so into the middle of next week, at least.

There are long-range computer forecast models that predict the future environment over the tropics, and whether it will be conducive for tropical development. The consensus is that the general pattern will change in nine or 10 days. We’ll see. For now, systems in the eastern Atlantic and over Africa are being suppressed and there’s a layer of dry, dusty air contributing to the lack of development.

Enjoy the pause.

© 2019 by Bryan Norcross Corporation

This EXPERIMENTAL and AUTOMATED page displays advisory information compiled from text advisories and graphics issued for public consumption by the National Hurricane Center.  Every effort is made to display the information accurately, however as with any experimental system, errors in the acquisition, storage, analysis, manipulation, or display of the data may occur on occasion.  Refer to www.hurricanes.gov for official information directly from the National Hurricane Center.


Terms of Use

Social media posts: Advisory-summary images may be shared with credit to hurricaneintel.com. In blogs, articles, and on websites: Advisory-summary images from this site may be used if hurricaneintel.com is credited. However, you may NOT embed real-time updating content from this page without special permission. For further information contact mail (at) bryannorcross (dot) com.