KYLE JOINS JOSEPHINE ON A TRACK INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE THE TROPICS STAY QUIET

Tropical Storm Kyle set a record for being the earliest-developing “K” storm in the record book. It beat infamous Hurricane Katrina’s development in 2005 by 10 days. But, while that’s interesting, it’s not representative of the intensity of this hurricane season.

Kyle and the first six storms of this year developed from non-tropical systems that tracked over warm water and were able to gain enough tropical characteristics to get named. These storms are entirely different from the storms early in 2005 season, when the first 11 included five hurricanes – two of them reaching Category 5.

The bottom line is, the real tropical hurricane season hasn’t yet kicked in.

Tropical Storm Josephine is hanging on, but should start to weaken over the weekend as it passes the Caribbean islands to the north. The upper-level winds will become increasingly hostile, and Josephine is forecast to dissipate under their onslaught in the next few days. The remnants of the system will turn north well east of the U.S. East Coast.

Tropical Storm Kyle moved off the Mid-Atlantic coast over the Gulf Stream yesterday and promptly got named. It is forecast to intensify a bit as it speeds east into the North Atlantic. It will get absorbed into a larger northern weather system in the next few days.

The tropical Atlantic is quiet and is forecast to remain so into the middle of next week, at least.

There are long-range computer forecast models that predict the future environment over the tropics, and whether it will be conducive for tropical development. The consensus is that the general pattern will change in nine or 10 days. We’ll see. For now, systems in the eastern Atlantic and over Africa are being suppressed and there’s a layer of dry, dusty air contributing to the lack of development.

Enjoy the pause.