Kyle's Chances of Development Are Quickly Decreasing

The non-tropical low-pressure system between Bermuda and Puerto Rico is producing winds well over 40 mph. If it were a tropical system, it would be called Tropical Storm Kyle. There was some chance that it would take on some tropical characteristics and fit into the subtropical storm bucket, where it would still get named. But that's looking more unlikely.

The upper-level winds are strong and the complicated weather pattern over the middle of the Atlantic looks likely to generate a second non-tropical low ahead of wannabe-Kyle. The broad combo disturbance will likely continue into the open central Atlantic en masse without any tropical component.

The National Hurricane Center is still giving the original system a chance of morphing into Subtropical Storm Kyle, but the chances are low and decreasing.

Wannabe-Kyle's window of opportunity is over the weekend, if it exists at all. Most likely the El Niño-driven jet stream is going to dominate and prevent any tropical or quasi-tropical system from getting organized.

Elsewhere, the only place in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, or the Gulf that looks to have any chance of producing a tropical system is the extreme southern Caribbean Sea. This is where we always watch in November. Right now, there is no sign of a system developing there, but that area is south of the hostile environmental conditions which dominate farther north.