Looking toward November for possible tropical development

Hostile upper-level winds are screaming across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. They will prevent any potential tropical systems from moving toward the continental U.S. for the foreseeable future, perhaps for the rest of the hurricane season. Although, we can only confidently look ahead a couple of weeks.

In the Caribbean, however, conditions are still generally conducive for tropical development. Long-range computer forecasts show one or two low-pressure centers developing in or near the Caribbean in early November. The possible system intensities range from inconsequential to a hurricane.

The consensus for the possible track for a potential system is toward the northeastern Caribbean.

An upper-level disturbance in the form of a sharp jet-stream dip will be digging unusually far south about that time, which might be part of the triggering mechanism that could cause a disturbance or two to form. The dip in the jet stream also means that hostile upper winds will reach farther south, possibly tempering development.

In any case, there is nothing to look at for now. I expect we’ll see a potential development area from the National Hurricane Center soon, so we’ll wait to think much about it until then.