top of page

Lots of systems but no immediate threats in the tropical Atlantic

  • Writer: Bryan Norcross
    Bryan Norcross
  • Aug 7, 2021
  • 2 min read

The large area of disturbed weather across the tropical Atlantic just south of the Saharan dust plume has 3 distinct circulations embedded in it. Exactly how they will evolve and interact with the dust and perhaps each other is not 100% clear, but none appear to be a threat. At least for the foreseeable future.



Tropical Disturbance #1 is the least likely to develop into an organized system. The best evidence is that it will move across the northern Caribbean islands over the next several days as a moisture surge, and reach the vicinity of Florida late next week. It could be accompanied by gusty tropical downpours, but nothing that doesn’t happen regularly during hurricane season.


Tropical Disturbance #2 has a well-defined circulation but lacks any significant thunderstorm activity. Dry air is apparently affecting the system. The computer forecast models are all over the place with this disturbance. The models that strengthen it, take it to the north. Those that keep is weak, hold it south as an insignificant system. In any case, there is no indication it will a threat, at least in well into next week.



Tropical Disturbance #3 has not been able to pull itself together, and now the odds look low that it will. It has a large circulation, but the upper-level winds in that part of the ocean are somewhat hostile at the moment. Over time, dry air may wipe out the system, or it might get absorbed into Disturbance #2. In any case, it is unlikely to be a threat to land.


All this activity is normal. Most of the disturbances that come off Africa and move across the Atlantic during the hurricane season do not develop. They move west without encountering the set of atmospheric conditions that allow them to organize – especially conducive upper winds and a moist atmosphere.


We are still a week or two away from the big uptick in tropical activity, just looking at the averages. For now, there’s stuff to look at, but nothing of concern.

 
 
 

コメント


© 2023 by Bryan Norcross Corporation

This EXPERIMENTAL and AUTOMATED page displays advisory information compiled from text advisories and graphics issued for public consumption by the National Hurricane Center.  Every effort is made to display the information accurately, however as with any experimental system, errors in the acquisition, storage, analysis, manipulation, or display of the data may occur on occasion.  Refer to www.hurricanes.gov for official information directly from the National Hurricane Center.

 

Terms of Use

Social media posts: Advisory-summary images may be shared with credit to hurricaneintel.com. In blogs, articles, and on websites: Advisory-summary images from this site may be used if hurricaneintel.com is credited. However, you may NOT embed real-time updating content from this page without special permission. For further information contact mail (at) bryannorcross (dot) com.

bottom of page