MIDDAY TROPICS : FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2019

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN.  IT WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE A FEW HOURS TO LIVE, HOWEVER, BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT THAT’S NOT FAR AWAY.

There’s a bubble of favorable atmospheric conditions over the southwestern Gulf, but the steering currents are lifting the system north where it will encounter a strong cold front pushing off the Texas coast, along with strong and hostile upper-level winds.

The difference between a disturbance and a depression is the organization of the circulation.  When the sun came up over the system this morning, the National Hurricane Center got a good satellite view of the disturbance, and was able to determine thatthe criteria for a depression had been met.  

The combination of high pressure behind the front and the low pressure of the tropical system is responsible for the winds over 40 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico.

The depression and its moisture are expected to combine with the front to produce heavy rain in Louisiana and Mississippi, pushing north into the Mid-South and Midwest.

The Texas cold front will move toward Florida, but not make it.  

A high-pressure system over Florida and the Bahamas is continuing to block fronts from pushing through Florida.  The consensus of the computer forecast models is this the pattern won’t change in any significant way through next week.  

Elsewhere, there is an area of disturbed weather on the other side of the Atlantic near the Azores Islands off Portugal.  It’s showing signs of development as well.  If trends continue, it could become a tropical storm later today.  It’s moving toward the Azores Islands.