• Bryan Norcross

More rain coming to the Hurricane Ida disaster zone while Larry grows in the Atlantic



You have to feel for the people in Louisiana who are trying to recover from Hurricane Ida. The rainy weather pattern that has plagued them all year just won’t let up. Yet another weak front is drifting toward the northern Gulf coast. Periods of heavy rain are forecast for the next couple of days unrelated to the disturbance in the Gulf.



The National Weather Service is forecasting 2 to 3 inches today. And a Flood Watch is in effect.


The nominal center of the Tropical Disturbance we’ve been tracking as it crawled across Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula is now over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The upper-level winds are not conducive for it to develop in the short term, but it’s carrying a slug of tropical moisture on its right side.


Over the next could days, the disturbance is forecast to drift toward the northern Gulf coast, likely as a just a moisture surge. But to the extent it impacts the disaster zone in southeastern Louisiana, it will be unwelcome.


The disturbance and its accompanying moisture are forecast to head east along the coast. The National Hurricane Center has painted a long potential development area where the system could organize into a tropical depression… if it stays offshore. But it’s somewhat more likely to develop after it gets into the Atlantic and is heading out to sea.



It might get absorbed into the cold front. Considering all of the negative factors involved, the National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a low chance of developing.


Some of that moisture will impact the Florida peninsula as well, keeping rain chances high for much of the week.


Out in the Atlantic, confidence is high that giant Hurricane Larry will pass Bermuda on Thursday with the center staying well to the east. Larry is so large, however, that strong winds and heavy rain are still expected to impact the island.


Starting today, huge powerful swells will pound the shoreline in Bermuda as they spread out from Larry. By mid to late week, the energy from Larry will reach the East Coast beaches. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely. Check the lifeguard flags if you go to the beach this week.



Elsewhere, we’ll keep an eye on the southern Caribbean where Ida and the current disturbance originated. There is nothing to track yet, but the computer forecast models indicate there might eventually be. As of now, there is no indication of a threat to the U.S.


The air over the eastern tropical Atlantic is quite dry. There are no threats from that directions at the moment. That’s where would normally look this time of year.