New disturbance to watch moving off the African coast

The disturbance we've been talking about for the last few days is finally moving off the coast of Africa and into the Atlantic. The system is very disorganized, so it will take a while before anything comes of it.

The National Hurricane Center gives it a low chance of developing into a tropical depression in the large yellow area this week. The atmosphere is dry, and the upper-level winds are not especially conducive for development.

In about a week, however, several of the long-range computer forecasts show the system developing north or northeast of the Caribbean islands. There's nothing to think about that at this point, except that it's probably a signal that the atmosphere is generally going to become more conducive to tropical development next week. This has been the expectation, of course.

Since the system hasn't even begun to develop, there's no reason to look at the specifics of any long-term forecast right now. Whatever they say today is likely to change tomorrow.

The key takeaway is that we haven't even reached the peak of hurricane season. Think of this pause as a gift. We still have at least two months to go.