No Further Tropical Development Is Likely This Hurricane Season

The weather pattern over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic is in a wintertime mode. The jet stream is being energized this year by the super El Niño, so it's even more hostile to development than normal.

Tropical development is unlikely for the rest of this month. Hurricane season officially ends, of course, on November 30.

Tropical systems can form and have formed every month of the year, however. The Atlantic's official June-to-November designation of hurricane season just means that tropical development is most likely during those months.

Historically, most out-of-season tropical storms have not impacted the U.S., although there are a couple of exceptions.

In 1925, a large tropical storm swept across Southwest Florida on November 30 and December 1. The storm dumped over 15 inches of rain on Miami on the 30th, which set a record for the month of November that stands today. Strong winds impacted a swath across the state, including Fort Myers, Tampa, and Jacksonville. The storm went on to hit eastern North Carolina at near-hurricane strength, although it had morphed into a non-tropical nor'easter-type system by that time.

On February 2, 1952, a disturbance organized in the extreme northwest Caribbean and moved north toward South Florida. It strengthened over the warm waters south of the Keys and plowed across Greater Miami early on February 3. Winds gusted over hurricane strength on Miami Beach, power was knocked out, and there was scattered damage and flooding across the city. That storm went on to be a nor'easter along the coast from North Carolina to New England.

The lesson is that weird stuff can happen any time, but the odds are very low and certainly not worth worrying about.

Enjoy the tropical break. Although this year, no doubt, the powerful El Niño will energize disruptive weather across the U.S., including in the hurricane zone, through this winter season.