No Tropical Activity Expected for a While

The tropical Atlantic is covered with Saharan dust, which dries out the atmosphere and shades the ocean to some degree. In addition, stronger than average winds have been churning up the ocean in the eastern Atlantic. The result is, the water temperature in a large part of the belt that affect tropical development is significantly cooler than it was during the past two hurricane seasons.

Besides that, hostile upper-level winds are blowing across the Gulf and the Caribbean. So for now, the main tropical development region is shut down. Fringe storms like Andrea, Barry, and Chantal can always develop, or course, although nothing appears imminent.

The last remnants of Chantal will pass eastern New England today, by the way. Unusually heavy tropical downpours are possible, so be aware. And even after Chantal is gone, the tropical moisture feed will remain in place. The air will continue to be unusually humid along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast.

Tropical disturbances are coming off Africa on schedule. A moisture surge is approaching the Bahamas related to a mid- to upper-level disturbance. But this is normal summer stuff, and no development is anticipated.

All this seems exceptional, I know, because of the high level of activity the last couple of years. But we only have to go back to 2022 to find a year when the first hurricane didn't develop until September. After that, the tropics exploded with storm after storm. Hurricane Ian roared across Florida in late September, and Hurricane Nicole hit the northeastern coast of the state in November.

And there are a number of other years in the record book when the ocean and atmosphere had a similar configuration to this year, and the season started late.

So for now, let's just appreciate the tropical lull.