No tropical development in the Atlantic for the foreseeable future

The Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf are pretty much shut down when it comes to potential tropical development.

The pattern that includes dips in the jet stream driving fronts into the Southeast, which is more typical of June than July, will break down this week. Leftover tails of fronts sometimes trigger a tropical disturbance to develop. But now, high pressure will spread from Africa across the Atlantic to the central U.S.

The flow across the tropical ocean will contain development-prohibiting Saharan dust at least for a while. African disturbances farther south will trek west as always, but they'll run into El Niño-generated hostile upper-level winds across the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic.

For now, the first chance the tropical disturbances have to develop comes when they arrive in the Pacific Ocean where the water temperatures are spectacularly warm.

There is some indication that some of the hostility will begin to wane around the middle of August, but that's beyond any reliable forecast horizon, especially when it comes to subtleties. So it's nothing to hang your hat on.

For now, we just deal with the extra heat and humidity in Florida and the South driven by the extra-warm water temperatures across the Gulf and east of Florida.

LONG-RANGE HAWAII FORECAST

Around the end of next week – about the middle of August – the long-range computer models are pretty insistent that a tropical storm or hurricane will move near or over the Hawaiian Islands. If the system comes together, this one will be coming from the southeast. That means it will be tracking over warmer water than the recent storm, Fausto.

There is nothing to do right now except plan to monitor forecast trends next week.