October Begins with a Blank Slate in the Atlantic but We'll Watch the Gulf

As of today, we made it through September without officially having a hurricane develop in the Atlantic, the Caribbean or the Gulf. "As of today" because at the end of the season, the National Hurricane Center will analyze all the data related to this season's storms, including data that came in after the fact. They'll determine if the wind speeds and track were correct in real time.

Sometimes additional or reanalyzed data shows stronger winds, and occasionally wind speeds are adjusted down. Tropical Storm Fay was only 5 mph below hurricane strength, and intrinsic errors in the real-time estimates are assumed to be more than that. So it's possible that we had a hurricane in the Atlantic after all. We'll see when the final analysis is complete.

No development is expected for the next week, but the weather pattern over the southwestern Gulf will become, at least briefly, more conducive for development in about seven or eight days. Whether a disturbance can take advantage of that and spin up is another question.

Long-range computer forecast models show a low chance of something developing.

The odds of a system being any significant threat to land are even lower. The band of hostile winds caused by the extra-strong El Niño should rip on anything that tries to develop.

The bottom line is that the overall atmospheric environment over the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf is forecast to remain, on average, hostile.

IN THE PACIFIC

Hurricane Rachel is forecast to reach Category 3 strength by tonight. It’s forecast to continue intensifying as it moves away from Mexico. Rachel is going to put a lot of energy in the Pacific, however, which will end up affecting the beaches in Southern California early next week. In addition, moisture from the hurricane will reach SoCal in a few days increasing the humidity, which will make the blazing heat wave there even worse.

Behind Rachel, there's another system that currently has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm. Many of the long-range computer forecast models show it developing and tracking closer to the Mexican coast than Polo or Rachel. If it develops, its name will be Simon.

Everybody along the Pacific beaches in Mexico should plan to stay informed.

Otherwise, nothing significant is forecast to affect land.