• Bryan Norcross

Odds of development in the Caribbean or Gulf are low but not yet zero

The disturbance we’ve been following in the Caribbean is now located over Nicaragua. That makes it unlikely that the system will organize in the short term.


The old disturbance will likely combine with a new tropical disturbance approaching it from the east. The combination will migrate over or near the extreme western Caribbean tomorrow and then toward the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is no evidence at this time that the system would get very strong. And the steering flow would keep it well south of the U.S.



The combo disturbance is most likely to move across Central America as a tropical moisture surge. There’s only a slight chance an organized circulation will develop. Even if it did, most likely the heavy rain over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico would still be the most significant threat.


This disturbance is part of a broad area of disturbed weather over Central America that extends into the Pacific, where a developing storm will meander near the coast before heading out to sea. The Pacific storm will likely become the dominant feature, preventing the Caribbean or Gulf system from developing into very much.


A strong area of high pressure, which has been causing a major heatwave over the Midwest, will keep the disturbance well to the south of the U.S. In addition, a long tongue of Saharan dust has dried out the atmosphere over most of the tropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. This will act as additional protection preventing tropical systems from moving north in the immediate future.


No other tropical development is expected through the weekend.