Robust Tropical Disturbance heading toward the Caribbean is likely to develop

Tropical Disturbance #1 is continuing to organize as it crosses the tropical Atlantic, moving toward the Caribbean. A cloud of Sahara dust is just to the north, but the plume is thinning, and there's a good chance the disturbance will be able to fight it off. The National Hurricane Center has the odds in the high category that the system will develop into at least a tropical depression next week.

Based on the various computer model forecasts, it appears likely that the disturbance will organize and acquire strong enough winds to be designated Tropical Storm Ernesto. The question is, where and when is that going to happen?

On the current schedule, gusty squalls from the disturbance would reach the northeastern Caribbean islands on Monday. The system would impact Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands midweek and begin a turn to the north at that time, or perhaps on Thursday. There is a high consensus in the computer forecasts that the system will track in the direction of Puerto Rico, but much less consensus on when it will organize into Ernesto.

As always, forecasts for undeveloped or just developing systems are iffy and subject to change. So, everybody in the northeast Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands, needs to assume the disturbance will organize more quickly than many of the current projections and be ready just in case.

When and where the system turns to the north is critical to who gets affected next, if anyone. A strong dip in the jet stream is forecast to move offshore of the northeastern US, which will want to pull the system north. There is a high consensus in the computer forecast on that point. But the strength of the system and exactly where it tracks around or over the Caribbean islands has a lot to do with how sharp a turn possible-Ernesto makes.

A slow turn affecting the Bahamas and some parts of the US East Coast is on the edge of the possibility envelope now. But as we've already seen this year with Hurricanes Beryl and Debby, long-range projections often shift as the system gets more organized.

If the current development trend continues, the potentially affected islands will be on high alert in the next couple of days. Stay aware and stay informed.

If possible-Ernesto were to make a wide turn and impact the Bahamas, based on what we know now, that would begin in the southeastern Bahamas about Thursday, with the storm slowly moving north. Once it begins its turn, the storm's forward motion is likely to slow down. So any effects on the US, though not likely at the current time, wouldn't be until the end of next week at the earliest.

Obviously, we all will have to watch the system to be sure it behaves properly.

Behind this system, more disturbances are lined up over Africa. But a new cloud of Saharan dust has moved over the eastern tropical Atlantic, which should slow things down at least temporarily. So nothing else appears to be in the offing right away.