• Bryan Norcross

Sam and Victor are weakening as we shift to an October weather pattern in the tropics

Still-powerful Hurricane Sam finally started to weaken overnight as it slipped past Bermuda about 200 miles to the east. The gustiest outer bands stayed offshore of the island, so the weather effects were minimal. Sam’s main impact is the giant swells pushing out in all directions from the hurricane.



Sam’s energy will radiate across the Atlantic and be very noticeable in the waves along the U.S. East Coast this weekend, except it will affect South Florida somewhat less. The Bahamas blocks most of the strong swells coming from the middle of the Atlantic from reaching the coastline south of the Palm Beaches. Still, there is a risk of rip currents at all South Florida beaches from the persistent wind off the ocean. Additionally, Sam’s swells will enhance the risk along the beaches from Palm Beach north.


Sam has been an extraordinary storm for its location, timing, and longevity at high intensity. It will now move into the North Atlantic and morph into a giant wintertime-like low-pressure system. Newfoundland in far eastern Atlantic Canada might get some fringe effects.



On the other side of the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Victor has come apart and may soon be finished. It is driving north into dry air and hostile upper winds, which have taken their toll.



The companion disturbance to Victor that did not develop over the tropical Atlantic a few days ago should reach the southern Caribbean around the middle of next week. A dip in the jet stream is forecast to form over the Gulf, which could pull tropical moisture north toward the end of the week.


No organized system is forecast to develop at this time, but the Caribbean and Gulf are where we watch this time of year.


Except for weakening Sam and Victor, the tropics are expected to be quiet though the middle of next week at least.