Slow moving disturbance to watch in the eastern Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development of the disorganized tropical disturbance off the coast of Africa to the medium range. But it's going to be a slow process.

The steering currents are weak across the tropical belt, so it's going to take at least a week until the system reaches the general vicinity of the Caribbean islands. The atmospheric conditions are only moderately conducive for development between the Caribbean and Africa, but it doesn't take much for a tropical depression to spin up.

In the long range, the various computer forecasts diverge. Some show a weak disturbance continuing west, and others predict the system will evolve into Tropical Storm or Hurricane Gabrielle and turn north.

There is a consensus that a strong dip in the jet stream will be reinforced over the eastern U.S., which should continue to deflect any strong storms to the north. The jet stream has much less steering effect on weak systems, however, so if the disturbance doesn't develop into much of a system, its future track is much less certain.

For now, we'll just keep half an eye on the disturbance, but the Atlantic tropics are still mostly in shutdown mode.

In the Pacific

A disturbance tracking parallel to the Mexican coast is likely to develop into Tropical Storm or Hurricane Lorena before it reaches the Baja California peninsula of Mexico. Computer forecasts indicate that the system has a decent chance of reaching hurricane strength.

On the current schedule, the system will be in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of Baja on Wednesday. Residents and visitors should stay well informed.