Slow tropical development in the Caribbean possible later this week

A broad area of low pressure near the coast of Colombia will migrate into the southwestern Caribbean Sea this week. The consensus of the computer forecast models is that the system will slowly consolidate through the week and into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center puts the odds of at least a tropical depression forming in the medium range.

The upper-level winds are forecast to remain quite hostile over the northern Caribbean this week, which looks likely to hold off any significant development until over the weekend or early next week, if it occurs.

Long-range computer forecasts generally show a consolidated disturbance slowly rotating north around the original broad counterclockwise circulation. Whether it reaches the Dominican Republic, Haiti, or Puerto Rico is an open question. If it stays fairly weak, it looks more likely to meander around the Caribbean.

For now, there is nothing to look at. Residents in the northern and northeastern Caribbean islands should plan to stay informed late in the week.

There is no indication that the system would threaten the mainland U.S. Hostile upper winds are forecast to continue to blow over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.